Category Archives: Views

To understand (or prevent) the next crisis, read ‘The Money Formula’

Do you want to know how the next financial crisis will arrive, and how it could be prevented? In that case, read “The Money Formula“, a book by Paul Wilmott and David Orrell published earlier this year.

It shows you, with mathematical precision, what the financial world did not learn from the previous crisis. It also shows why it is so difficult for the rest of the world to catch them out.

Continue reading

The first half of the year was full of humbling lessons

What a spectacular lesson the first half of the year delivered for investors. At the beginning of the year, it looked like the UK’s vote to leave the European Union was a great idea: the eurozone seemed on the brink of disintegration.

Continue reading

Home price inflation keeps going, deepening inequality

The financial repression that central banks started after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 does not seem to be close to an end. The central banks argue that inflation has not come back to their target of around 2%, but their definition of inflation is flawed.

Continue reading

European stocks are everybody’s darlings

The European Central Bank (ECB) will find itself the only game in town soon. It is the only major central bank still buying bonds hand over first, and therefore it is dictating the pace for private investors.

Continue reading

More Europe, or no Europe: the time to decide is now

Europe has been through a very rough patch since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, but the real danger for the European Union and the eurozone is still very present. In order to save the EU, Europeans will have to get even closer.

Continue reading

For EU citizens, the right to stay in Brexit Britain may come too late

I see that even one of the most fervent supporters of the Leave campaign, its biggest donor, agrees with an idea I expressed a couple of months after the Brexit vote: Britain should unilaterally guarantee the rights of European Union citizens already residing here.

Continue reading

Brexit voters blame the wrong foreigners for the London housing crisis

One of the main complaints of some of the “Leave” voters was that Britain is a “small island” and it is “full up.” Immigration “puts pressure” on local services such as hospitals and schools, but, most importantly, on local housing.

Even Prime Minister Theresa May, when she was Home Secretary, said immigration was putting pressure on the housing sector.

Intriguingly, however, it seems the kind of foreigner whom the UK government welcomes is the foreigner who buys homes but never lives in them – the foreign investor.

Continue reading

Markets have their first head-on collision with Trump

Well, wasn’t last week a bit of a cold shower for investors. European stock markets closed lower and US ones were flat last Friday, after nonfarm payrolls badly missed expectations in March.

In fact, it’s a surprise the markets declined so little. Investors had other things to worry about, too: President Trump’s surprise airstrike on Syria was a big one. The president, who until not long ago was making positive noises about his Syrian and Russian counterparts, changed his mind after a chemical weapons attack that killed many children.

Continue reading

The real reason the Fed is hiking interest rates is scary

Some people wonder why the Federal Reserve is in such a hurry to raise interest rates, pointing out that growth in the world’s first economy is hesitant at best. Inflation, of course, is an issue — even the stripped-down official version of inflation, “core” as they like to call it, is rising.

Continue reading

The Fed is behind the curve, and happy to stay there

There is a widespread view that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates at a steady pace this year, because it cannot afford to fall behind the curve.

I would argue that it has already fallen behind the curve and has no choice but to remain there. And it is not the only one in this situation. All major central banks are playing the same game; they have no choice.

Continue reading