Tag Archives: China

Home price falls threaten China’s capitalist communism

While all eyes are on Italy, the world’s second-largest economy is showing signs of trouble. China, this curious mix of communism and capitalism, is running out of steam – and ideas. Unless the Chinese government finds new ways to stimulate its economy, it might find itself facing the world’s biggest revolution.

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Fed interest rate hikes could make China’s debt implode

While all eyes are still on Turkey, another emerging market is about to show the ugly side of quantitative tightening, and this time things could get really serious.

The world’s second largest economy has been a “success story” for so long that people have forgotten about China’s many vulnerabilities. Or rather, the Chinese communist party has been so good at keeping things under wraps, that few of the country’s weaknesses are known to the outside world.

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Cooling housing markets will prevent interest rate rises

Housing markets in certain developed economies are beginning to lose steam, prompting worries that house prices might see corrections, especially in countries where they had been overheating.

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Argentina shows the bad side of quantitative easing

This past week, there has been a frenzy of selling of emerging markets assets. The outflows from both stocks and debt in emerging markets reached their highest level since December 2016.

This amounted to $3.7 billion withdrawn from emerging market equities and bonds, according to data analysed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. These outflows have helped push our old friend, the Bull/Bear indicator developed by BofA Merrill Lynch, to 4.8 — its lowest level since January 2017.

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Investor optimism gets close to euphoria levels

The first quarter of 2017 is over, Brexit has been finally triggered and a period of political turmoil in Europe is ahead, with elections in France and Germany, and perhaps Italy too.

So far, it seems like nothing has been serious enough to give investors reason to pause the rally in stock markets. Both the US and the UK indices hit record highs — this could be a sign of confidence, but it could also mean the central banks’ easy monetary policies are still inflating asset prices.

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Investors should look at SAARC as a separate asset class

By Sourajit Aiyer

This article is a synopsis of my new book, Capital Market Integration in South Asia: Realizing the SAARC Opportunity. Here is a link to the publishers’ website and here is a link to it on Amazon, where you will be able to buy it when it is launched in November.

Lee Kuan Yew, credited for converting Singapore into an economic success, once described ASEAN as “Unpromising Start, Promising Future”. This phrase can also describe the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has seen few successes as geopolitics slowed progress.

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India could become a ‘swing state’ in a tri-polar world

By Sourajit Aiyer

This article was originally published in Society for Policy Studies’ South Asia Monitor, India.

The United States was the sole superpower after the bipolar Cold-War ended with the Soviet Union’s demise. Then, China started flexing its geopolitical muscle using its manufacturing boom-led foreign exchange to woo developing nations. It is fast expanding its military presence in its neighbourhood.

Russia has become assertive again, and is expanding its influence in Eurasian and Middle East regions, backed by the might of its defence establishment. It is quite a coincidence that the superpowers are often the biggest producers and exporters of defence arms.

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Six ideas to grow your brand in Asia

By Sourajit Aiyer

This article was originally published in InBusiness Dubai and Huffington Post India.

There are many brands in Asia, and more are cropping up each day. How do you ensure your brand grabs client attention for a long time?

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China’s economy could be hit by three big problems

By Sourajit Aiyer

This article was originally published by Foreign Policy News USA.

Can the Chinese economic engine really be hit? It is undergoing a transformational change currently, from investment-driven to a consumption-driven one, but that would still enable it to run at a decent speed.

Here are three distinct themes that can severely hit the Chinese engine in the years to come:

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China has rich country problems, but a poor country budget

By Nuno Fernandes

This article was first published by Opalesque.com.

The recent steep slides on global stock markets have been a long time in the making. As early as two years ago, it was becoming obvious that in addition to the contraction of global demand, as well as the general increase in the relative competitiveness of other Asian countries, China’s rapid rise was coming to a screeching halt and leaving excessive debt in its wake.

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