When the bank of central banks warns about financial stability, you have to take notice — even if the warning comes in the Bank for International Settlements usually dry, academic style.
The BIS recently published a paper about the effect of prolonged interest rates on financial stability, and it makes worrying reading. (However, as most people are on holidays in August, unless they are reading it on the beach it will largely go unnoticed).
The snow has melted and it’s time to make plans for the future again. And like every spring, those plans are likely to include what has become known as “reflation” — inflation increasing again to a level where it can eat away at the mountain of debt the world’s big economies have to deal with.
Will consumer price inflation, rather than inflation in asset prices like property and securities, finally take off? There have been two interesting points of view last week on this issue.
Central banks are still worried about the danger of deflation, even though they have timidly started to lift interest rates. How else would they explain real negative rates almost everywhere in the developed economies?
As the effects of the vote by the UK people to leave the European Union still unfold, more and more economists say property will take a serious hit. A 50% cut in property prices in London is among the possibilities mentioned by one analyst.
The word “deflation” is on everybody’s lips now, with falls in consumer prices the main worry of central bankers and their ilk. But are things really all that bad, and what other type of deflation should we worry about in 2016?
This article was originally published in South Asia Monitor, India.
Some analysts in developed markets insist that future growth will come from emerging markets, whose share of world GDP has increased rapidly over the past decades. But if the India’s consumers are anything to go by, the road ahead for growth is not that straight, and it is quite bumpy.
How do you print money and not cause inflation? Easy. Choose the definition of inflation that suits your needs – the one that includes only those items whose prices are not increasing that fast – and ignore price rises everywhere else. Like, for instance, asset price inflation.