Thursday brings the most-watched meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in years, and it all hinges on what Saudi Arabia decides to do.
The price of oil is already very high by historical standards, with Brent staying above $100 per barrel because of tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties created by the Arab Spring, Tom Pugh, commodities analyst at Capital Economics, said.
But growing supply and relatively slow demand is likely to push oil prices lower over the next five to 10 years, he wrote in a market note.
Oil prices are going to continue to be driven by fundamentals rather than investment in the coming months, analysts at Societe Generale forecast in a recent market report.
Their base case scenario is that a diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis succeeds and that production in Libya remains constrained by the strikes and protests by militias that have pretty much stopped much of the country’s oil output.