Those who worry that the extraordinary stock market rally will come to an end in 2022 may be worrying too soon: equities could still power ahead, and particularly so in Europe.
Continue readingTag Archives: Europe
Three potentially positive effects of inflation
Inflation is here to stay, rather than transitory, no matter what central banks are telling us. But rising inflation could help make the global economy more efficient. Here are three potentially positive consequences of high inflation:
Continue readingWhy the ECB is in no hurry to fight inflation
The euro has lost a lot of ground versus other major currencies as the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking a very dovish stance even compared to the usually dovish Bank of England.
As expected, a German has the difficult task of being a lone hawk amid doves: Isabel Schnabel, member of the ECB’s Governing Board, recently warned that the central bank has consistently been wrong in its inflation forecasts.
Continue readingCome on, Europe: wir schaffen das
There are moments in politics and policy that change the course of history; when they can be summarised in three words, they are the best.
Mario Draghi’s statement back in 2012 that the European Central Bank will do “whatever it takes” to save the euro was such a moment: from then on, the speculators’ attack on weaker eurozone members’ sovereign debt stopped.
Another such moment came three years later, when in 2015 German chancellor Angela Merkel allowed one million refugees to enter Germany. “Wir schaffen das” (we can manage this), she said.
Continue readingFuel shortages mark the beginning of Brexit woes
The queues for petrol in the UK are perhaps the most important post-Brexit moment for Boris Johnson and for those who followed his advice and voted to leave the European Union.
Continue readingItaly tourism season is crucial for post-Covid recovery
The fact that Italy was the first European country to be hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic seems a distant memory. Will Italy now be the first in the European Union to stage a spectacular recovery?
House prices are becoming red hot, and this is scary
House price growth is accelerating in the UK and the rest of Europe, but it is far from healthy growth. The consequences of lax rules on lending to house buyers could be devastating.
Continue readingCounting the costs of Brexit starts with London
For whoever wants to see the real-life results of giving in to populism, the UK’s case is a fascinating one. Counting the costs of Brexit is only beginning, but already the picture is a gloomy one.
Continue readingCovid-19 lays bare the weakness of EU businesses
As a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is taking hold of Europe, the European Union, with its high welfare and healthcare standards, seems to be able to withstand it better than the US.
But if in terms of public health this may be true, in economic terms EU politicians and policymakers should use this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to understand that the EU risks falling behind the US and China — and to take measures to prevent that.
If recession hits, blame populists like Donald Trump
The fourth quarter of the year started with heightened volatility and rising uncertainty and is likely to continue this way, despite some green shoots in the first part of October.