Whisper it, but the markets may have been through the worst already. Yes, inflation is more stubborn than the central banks had anticipated. And yes, Russia’s war on Ukraine, despite the recent setback, still rages on.
Continue readingThe return of inflation has taken a lot of people by surprise, although it should not have done. Worryingly, even central banks have acted quite surprised by the abrupt rise in prices, when they should have expected it.
Continue readingWhile all eyes are on what central banks will do with interest rates, consumers and investors alike should really worry about what commercial banks will do.
Continue readingEuropean stock markets recouped all the ground lost since the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine, but investor optimism may be misplaced.
Continue readingWill 2022 be the year when the tide goes out in Europe’s financial markets? Many commentators now say it will, and point to the large sums of cash that have gone into stocks, bonds and other financial assets in the past.
Continue readingThose who worry that the extraordinary stock market rally will come to an end in 2022 may be worrying too soon: equities could still power ahead, and particularly so in Europe.
Continue readingInflation is here to stay, rather than transitory, no matter what central banks are telling us. But rising inflation could help make the global economy more efficient. Here are three potentially positive consequences of high inflation:
Continue readingThe euro has lost a lot of ground versus other major currencies as the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking a very dovish stance even compared to the usually dovish Bank of England.
As expected, a German has the difficult task of being a lone hawk amid doves: Isabel Schnabel, member of the ECB’s Governing Board, recently warned that the central bank has consistently been wrong in its inflation forecasts.
Continue readingThere are moments in politics and policy that change the course of history; when they can be summarised in three words, they are the best.
Mario Draghi’s statement back in 2012 that the European Central Bank will do “whatever it takes” to save the euro was such a moment: from then on, the speculators’ attack on weaker eurozone members’ sovereign debt stopped.
Another such moment came three years later, when in 2015 German chancellor Angela Merkel allowed one million refugees to enter Germany. “Wir schaffen das” (we can manage this), she said.
Continue readingThe queues for petrol in the UK are perhaps the most important post-Brexit moment for Boris Johnson and for those who followed his advice and voted to leave the European Union.
Continue reading