January was an extraordinarily positive month in the markets for virtually all assets, after a horrible 2018 — and it’s all due to the Fed. The US central bank executed a massive U-turn in its monetary policy and, while many observers like to point to low inflation as the reason for the Fed’s aborted effort to normalise monetary policy, something more sinister is behind it.
I know the chances of anyone paying attention to this article are slim, but it’s worth putting it out there nevertheless. If you are stockpiling to prepare for Brexit, as it increasingly is the fashion, you need to stop. You are doing yourself and the others around you more harm than good.
As the major central banks are slowly retreating from their policy of asset purchases, we will probably witness some of the side effects of this withdrawal.
Warren Buffett famously said that “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The tide is going out only slowly, but we are beginning to see, at least in the UK, the damage the ultra loose monetary policy has done.
The Indian central bank’s upcoming policy review this week, a month after demonetization, holds ample suspense for a possible interest rate cut.
The demonetization of Rs 500/1,000 currency notes since November 8 has led to a rapid inflow of deposits in banks. Brought in to fight black market money and counterfeits, the amount in circulation in these notes was estimated at around Rs 14 trillion, i.e. about 86% of the total.
Citizens were asked to deposit them in their banks, leading to the deposit surge. The Hindu, a leading daily, said ~Rs 8.5 trillion had been deposited by end November and estimated it to reach between Rs 10-11 trillion by early-December.
Bearishness increased for the short term (a one to two weeks horizon) while intermediate-term bullishness on US stock markets has tempered, flows data around the first interest rate raise by the Federal Reserve in nearly a decade show.