With 2022 almost in the rear-view mirror, it is time for 2023 predictions. One thing is becoming clear: Brexit does not work. Therefore, this could be the year of a thawing of the UK-EU relations.
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Is the worst of the bear market over?
Whisper it, but the markets may have been through the worst already. Yes, inflation is more stubborn than the central banks had anticipated. And yes, Russia’s war on Ukraine, despite the recent setback, still rages on.
Continue readingFinancial markets turn from servant to master for the UK
Ever since the Brexit vote, financial markets have had an uneasy relationship with the UK. The pound fell sharply after the vote to leave the European Union in June 2016, which surprised many in the City, and since then, UK financial markets have been volatile, trying to price in the consequences of this decision.
Continue readingThree reasons why market capitulation may be over
The return of inflation has taken a lot of people by surprise, although it should not have done. Worryingly, even central banks have acted quite surprised by the abrupt rise in prices, when they should have expected it.
Continue readingBuy in May and go away?
It looks like the old saying “Sell in May and go away” has just been turned on its head. After cratering for seven weeks, the S&P 500 index ended last week up 6.6%
Continue readingRussian war on Ukraine hurts all emerging markets
Besides the immense human tragedy that it has caused, Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine has also thrown emerging markets back at least a decade in terms of attractivity for investors. It will be hard, if not impossible, for the asset class to bounce back.
Continue readingBeware value traps when hunting for stock market bargains
European stock markets recouped all the ground lost since the February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine, but investor optimism may be misplaced.
Continue readingEuropean assets: overbought or oversold?
Will 2022 be the year when the tide goes out in Europe’s financial markets? Many commentators now say it will, and point to the large sums of cash that have gone into stocks, bonds and other financial assets in the past.
Continue readingFour reasons why the stockmarket rally is not over
Those who worry that the extraordinary stock market rally will come to an end in 2022 may be worrying too soon: equities could still power ahead, and particularly so in Europe.
Continue readingInvestors fear inflation but run to it
Recent capital flows highlight a paradox: investors are afraid of inflation, but seem to have increased their allocation to just the assets that would do worst out of it.
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