Tag Archives: US equities

Contrarian ‘buy’ signal is triggered again

Uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations has hit new highs, President Trump seems determined to scare the markets witless with his threats of escalating the trade war, debt problems in China are accelerating – the perfect background for a contrarian ‘buy’ signal.

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‘Buy’ signal triggered by extreme bearishness

It finally happened: investors are so bearish that a contrarian “buy” signal has been triggered. The Bull and Bear indicator developed by researchers at Bank of America Merrill Lynch is finally indicating Buy, one year after climbing so high that it triggered a Sell signal.

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Capitulation is near, and so is the Buy signal

If this is not yet capitulation, it sure feels like it. Money has been fleeing stock markets at record speed, and despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, investors are still not taking advantage of the buying opportunities the panic in the markets are throwing at them.

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As ‘exodus from Europe’ intensifies, watch the UK savings ratio

The list of reasons to worry in the market is growing longer by the day, and investors keep taking money out of risky assets – among them, European ones.

The phenomenon has been dubbed an “exodus from Europe” by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who say there is “no surprise that the outflow from European high grade and high yield funds has been much more sizable than outflows from emerging markets debt funds.”

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Will Green November follow Red October?

Last month has become known as Red October, not so much as a hint to the film starring Sean Connery as the commander of the defecting Soviet submarine by that name, but sadly, as an accurate description of the dominant colour on trading screens around the world.

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Don’t do all your stock market shopping on Halloween

The Halloween effect is a well-known seasonal quirk that pushes stock prices up between October 31 and May 1. After a horrible October for stocks, investors are anxious to know whether the market rout is over or it has more to run.

There is one indicator that could provide some clues. We’ve spoken about it before on this website. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Bull and Bear indicator triggered a “Sell” signal back in January of this year, and it is now close to a “Buy” one – although not yet.

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‘Schizophrenic’ capital flows? No, they’re perfectly rational

The year-to-date capital flows seem to show a dramatic change in the way investors perceive risk in the stock markets. Emerging market equities, Japan and the financial sector seem to have turned from risky assets into “safe havens”.

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Indicator that predicted the selloff is back to neutral

The indicator that correctly signalled February’s selloff has fallen below the trigger for the Sell signal, but this does not mean the path is clear for those who are tempted to buy stocks now.

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A ‘Powell put’ is not guaranteed for the markets

Everybody is waiting for Jay Powell, the new Fed Chair, to set out his vision this week. The main question is: will there be a “Powell Put” just as there has been a Greenspan put, a Bernanke put and a Yellen put?

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Sell signal still flashing despite the stock market correction

The past week has not been encouraging for investors, with many asset classes haemorrhaging funds at increased speed.

The week before that, on January 30, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Bull/Bear indicator triggered a sell signal for the first time in five years, and markets sold off.

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