Central banks squandered their chance to keep inflation under control, and it is not sure that their game of catch-up will work.Continue reading
Brexit Britain may need to get closer to the EU in 2023
With 2022 almost in the rear-view mirror, it is time for 2023 predictions. One thing is becoming clear: Brexit does not work. Therefore, this could be the year of a thawing of the UK-EU relations.Continue reading
Is the worst of the bear market over?
Whisper it, but the markets may have been through the worst already. Yes, inflation is more stubborn than the central banks had anticipated. And yes, Russia’s war on Ukraine, despite the recent setback, still rages on.Continue reading
Financial markets turn from servant to master for the UK
Ever since the Brexit vote, financial markets have had an uneasy relationship with the UK. The pound fell sharply after the vote to leave the European Union in June 2016, which surprised many in the City, and since then, UK financial markets have been volatile, trying to price in the consequences of this decision.Continue reading
Why I hope Liz Truss is lying
Liz Truss, the favourite in the race to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister, has laid the blame for inflation at the door of the Bank of England, saying it must do more to fight price rises.
Truss also said she would change the Bank of England’s mandate if she becomes prime minister, to ensure that the central bank fights inflation more efficiently, but gave no details about what that change would entail.
With consumer price inflation hitting a 40-year high of 9.4% in June, you may think she has a point. The Bank of England is behind the curve, but when it comes to changing the central bank’s mandate, I really hope Liz Truss is lying. If she is not, then we should all be very afraid.Continue reading
Three reasons why market capitulation may be over
The return of inflation has taken a lot of people by surprise, although it should not have done. Worryingly, even central banks have acted quite surprised by the abrupt rise in prices, when they should have expected it.Continue reading
Buy in May and go away?
It looks like the old saying “Sell in May and go away” has just been turned on its head. After cratering for seven weeks, the S&P 500 index ended last week up 6.6%Continue reading
Why high natural gas prices could benefit democracy
As Russia’s war on Ukraine has disrupted global energy supplies, the focus on renewable and sustainable energy is becoming sharper than ever.Continue reading
Russian war on Ukraine hurts all emerging markets
Besides the immense human tragedy that it has caused, Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine has also thrown emerging markets back at least a decade in terms of attractivity for investors. It will be hard, if not impossible, for the asset class to bounce back.Continue reading
Watch commercial banks’ interest rates for clues on the future
While all eyes are on what central banks will do with interest rates, consumers and investors alike should really worry about what commercial banks will do.Continue reading