The return of inflation has taken a lot of people by surprise, although it should not have done. Worryingly, even central banks have acted quite surprised by the abrupt rise in prices, when they should have expected it.Continue reading
Tag Archives: emerging markets
Buy in May and go away?
It looks like the old saying “Sell in May and go away” has just been turned on its head. After cratering for seven weeks, the S&P 500 index ended last week up 6.6%Continue reading
Why high natural gas prices could benefit democracy
As Russia’s war on Ukraine has disrupted global energy supplies, the focus on renewable and sustainable energy is becoming sharper than ever.Continue reading
Russian war on Ukraine hurts all emerging markets
Besides the immense human tragedy that it has caused, Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine has also thrown emerging markets back at least a decade in terms of attractivity for investors. It will be hard, if not impossible, for the asset class to bounce back.Continue reading
Four reasons why the stockmarket rally is not over
Those who worry that the extraordinary stock market rally will come to an end in 2022 may be worrying too soon: equities could still power ahead, and particularly so in Europe.Continue reading
Three potentially positive effects of inflation
Inflation is here to stay, rather than transitory, no matter what central banks are telling us. But rising inflation could help make the global economy more efficient. Here are three potentially positive consequences of high inflation:Continue reading
Come on, Europe: wir schaffen das
There are moments in politics and policy that change the course of history; when they can be summarised in three words, they are the best.
Mario Draghi’s statement back in 2012 that the European Central Bank will do “whatever it takes” to save the euro was such a moment: from then on, the speculators’ attack on weaker eurozone members’ sovereign debt stopped.
Another such moment came three years later, when in 2015 German chancellor Angela Merkel allowed one million refugees to enter Germany. “Wir schaffen das” (we can manage this), she said.Continue reading
A climate change accounting trick could save the planet
As more politicians become aware of the need to do something about climate change before we’re all swallowed by the oceans we came from, discussions are focusing on how to measure what countries are doing about it and what steps to take to contain it.
An accounting trick that could save the planet should perhaps be given more attention: adjusting each country’s gross domestic product data by the effect that particular country has on climate change.Continue reading
Beyond the Covid-19 crisis, forecasts may be too optimistic
The Covid-19 crisis is one year old, and already, on the economic front at least, optimism is gaining ground.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic growth projections, released last week, point to a strong rebound: the world economy is forecast to expand by 6% this year, led by emerging and developing Asia, which is expected to grow by 8.6%.Continue reading
Emerging markets face three major headwinds
Emerging market assets have enjoyed robust performance despite the Covid-19 pandemic, with investors attracted by their higher yields and faster economic growth prospects in these countries.
But three headwinds could cut short their growth spurt: rising interest rates, environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and the retreat of globalisation.
These headwinds are converging at a very delicate time for global markets, and at least two of them could persist for a long time.Continue reading