Tag Archives: interest rates

Financial markets turn from servant to master for the UK

Ever since the Brexit vote, financial markets have had an uneasy relationship with the UK. The pound fell sharply after the vote to leave the European Union in June 2016, which surprised many in the City, and since then, UK financial markets have been volatile, trying to price in the consequences of this decision.

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Why I hope Liz Truss is lying

Liz Truss, the favourite in the race to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister, has laid the blame for inflation at the door of the Bank of England, saying it must do more to fight price rises.

Truss also said she would change the Bank of England’s mandate if she becomes prime minister, to ensure that the central bank fights inflation more efficiently, but gave no details about what that change would entail.

With consumer price inflation hitting a 40-year high of 9.4% in June, you may think she has a point. The Bank of England is behind the curve, but when it comes to changing the central bank’s mandate, I really hope Liz Truss is lying. If she is not, then we should all be very afraid.

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Three reasons why market capitulation may be over

The return of inflation has taken a lot of people by surprise, although it should not have done. Worryingly, even central banks have acted quite surprised by the abrupt rise in prices, when they should have expected it.

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Buy in May and go away?

It looks like the old saying “Sell in May and go away” has just been turned on its head. After cratering for seven weeks, the S&P 500 index ended last week up 6.6%

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Russian war on Ukraine hurts all emerging markets

Besides the immense human tragedy that it has caused, Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine has also thrown emerging markets back at least a decade in terms of attractivity for investors. It will be hard, if not impossible, for the asset class to bounce back.

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Watch commercial banks’ interest rates for clues on the future

While all eyes are on what central banks will do with interest rates, consumers and investors alike should really worry about what commercial banks will do.

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Bank of England doubles down on house price inflation

This may not be the main thing that financial markets are looking at right now, but the Bank of England has announced it is thinking of removing another hurdle from the path or house price inflation.

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Four reasons why the stockmarket rally is not over

Those who worry that the extraordinary stock market rally will come to an end in 2022 may be worrying too soon: equities could still power ahead, and particularly so in Europe.

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Housing wealth soars while productivity lags

A century ago, the roaring ’20s were a time of hedonistic excess. After the horror of World War I, people wanted to rebuild, but also to forget. Wealth increased, and so did prices.

While we like to think we are smarter, or at least more knowledgeable than 100 years ago, there are worrying similarities between the two periods. If anything, the excesses this time around are much greater.

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Why the ECB is in no hurry to fight inflation

The euro has lost a lot of ground versus other major currencies as the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking a very dovish stance even compared to the usually dovish Bank of England.

As expected, a German has the difficult task of being a lone hawk amid doves: Isabel Schnabel, member of the ECB’s Governing Board, recently warned that the central bank has consistently been wrong in its inflation forecasts.  

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